Macro cycle
Building Permits Regime Change Forecaster
Reads the housing-permit cycle to flag WARNING → CRISIS → RECOVERY regimes. Currently late-cycle, BP trend bearish.
Macro cycle
A $600bn+ capex cycle is being financed with debt while the revenue to justify it hasn’t arrived. Quantum has its first credible milestones. And economists disagree about AI’s effect on GDP by an order of magnitude — what the evidence actually supports.
Bond yields (2/10/30-year) live under the Rates/Bonds tab. High-impact macro releases — the Forex-Factory staples: NFP, CPI, FOMC, PMI — sit at the top of the calendar.
Macro cycle
Reads the housing-permit cycle to flag WARNING → CRISIS → RECOVERY regimes. Currently late-cycle, BP trend bearish.
Macro composite
Eight macro inputs scored into one MACRO BULL / BEAR read. Latest: +6, macro bull, dragged by building permits.
Timing
Combines ISM PMI with consumer sentiment and VIX to time STRONG BUY washouts. Current signal: neutral.
From the ISM Report On Business: manufacturing 54.0, services 54.5, 16 of 17 industries growing. The framework’s tilt — long cyclicals with pricing power, underweight the two contracting industries. Research starters, not advice.
Older monthly reports are archived in Reports →
Prior-day low holds 57.8% of first touches, prior-week low 55.4% — and the highs are coin-flips. Plus why the 12-tick stop fails on 30m bars.
Open ideas with entry dates and honest marks — GS/JPM spread +2.4%, Korea EWY +8.3%, India upgraded. Losers stay on the page too.
Survivorship bias, edge decay and the gap between backtest and live execution — and what does transfer.
The three-method value model, the ISM tracker and the macro regime workbooks — editable, no black boxes.
Liquidity sweeps, CVD, market profile, diffusion indexes and regime scoring — defined without mystique.
Regime score, PMI buys and sells, new research and the updated track record — once a month when it publishes.
It’s 1am. Baby’s finally asleep. I’m at my desk doing what the cool kids call “vibe coding,” and for the first time in months the screens feel alive again.
Read on X →When I trade I have a plan of a level, alert goes off, assess reaction at the level, take the trade. My whole feed was long yesterday at the highs — often a great counter signal. Take profit 1, stop to break even, let the rest ride. #BTC