Do naked levels actually hold?
Prior-day low holds 57.8% of first touches, prior-week low 55.4% — and the highs are coin-flips. Plus why the 12-tick stop fails on 30m bars.
Three AI bosses said the race should slow down, and the tape read it as the end of the trade. Run it through the numbers and it cuts the one cost line standing between these labs and a profit — OpenAI burns 57% of revenue, Anthropic 33%. Meanwhile semiconductors are already down 15.4% and everyone is leaning bearish into Wednesday’s Fed.
Google booked $98bn of unrealised gains on Anthropic and SpaceX last quarter — 69% of its earnings per share. Those same two companies now pay SpaceX $26bn a year for compute, on contracts cancellable in 90 days. Every arrow is disclosed. The question is whether the loop rests on anything outside itself.
Japan and the United States just ran their first joint yen intervention since 2011. The trade underneath it is real, leveraged, and has broken markets before. It is also paying half what it paid in 2024 — and almost nobody explaining it has mentioned that.
Essay · Pinned
Limitless was never a pill. It was Claude all along.
It’s 1am. Baby’s finally asleep. I’m at my desk doing what the cool kids call “vibe coding,” and for the first time in months the screens feel alive again.
Julius Stark · 6 May 2026 · Read on X →
Regime score, PMI buys and sells, new research and the updated track record — once a month when it publishes.
From the August ISM Report On Business, released 1 September: manufacturing 54.6, down a point from July but an eighth straight month of expansion, with employment holding above 50 at 51.2, production still strongest at 58.3 and customer inventories at 42.8 (still too low). New orders fell 3.0 to 53.7 and backlogs 3.2 to 51.8 — the cycle is cooling, not turning. Research starters, not advice.
The full report goes further: what’s good, what’s bad and what to watch — plus the named ideas each tilt points at, the sub-index driving each one, and what would prove it wrong. Read the playbook →
Sourced from the ISM Report On Business · older monthly reports are archived in Reports →
Prior-day low holds 57.8% of first touches, prior-week low 55.4% — and the highs are coin-flips. Plus why the 12-tick stop fails on 30m bars.
Open ideas with entry dates and honest marks — GS/JPM spread +2.4%, Korea EWY +8.3%, India upgraded. Losers stay on the page too.
Survivorship bias, edge decay and the gap between backtest and live execution — and what does transfer.
Type a ticker, read the live financials, then run P/E, DCF and ROE valuations with every assumption editable.
Liquidity sweeps, CVD, market profile, diffusion indexes and regime scoring — defined without mystique.
Macro cycle
Reads the housing-permit cycle to flag WARNING → CRISIS → RECOVERY regimes. Currently late-cycle, BP trend bearish.
Macro composite
Eight macro inputs scored into one MACRO BULL / BEAR read. Latest: +6, macro bull, dragged by building permits.
Timing
Combines ISM PMI with consumer sentiment and VIX to time STRONG BUY washouts. Current signal: neutral.
When I trade I have a plan of a level, alert goes off, assess reaction at the level, take the trade. My whole feed was long yesterday at the highs — often a great counter signal. Take profit 1, stop to break even, let the rest ride. #BTC